Economist: U.S. may see double-dip recession by late 2010 - Philadelphia Business Journal:

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Those odds may seem low, but they’rw actually high since double-dip recessions are rare and the U.S. economty grows 95 percent of the time, said the chamber’a Marty Regalia. He predicted that the current economif downturn will end around September but that the unemployment rate will remain high through the first half ofnext year. Investment won’t snap back as quicklyh as it usually does after a Regalia said.
Inflation, looms as a potential problem because of thefederal government’ds huge budget deficits and the massivr amount of dollars pumped into the economy by the , he If this stimulus is not unwound once the economy beginds to recover, higher interest rates could choked off improvement in the housing market and businessx investment, he said. “The economy has got to be runnin on its own by the middle ofnext year,” Regaliq said. Almost every major inflationary periodin U.S. historyy was preceded by heavy debt he noted. The chances of a double-dil recession will be lower if Ben Bernanks is reappointed chairman of theFederal Reserve, Regaliz said.
If President Obama appoints hiseconomic adviser, Larry to chair the Fed, that would signap the monetary spigot would remain open for a longer he said. A coalescing of the Fed and the Obamaa administrationis “not something the markets want to Regalia said. Obama has declined to say whethedr he willreappoint Bernanke, whose term ends in February. more than half of small business ownerx expect the recession to last at least anothefrtwo years, according to a survey of Intuit Payroll customers.
But 61 percent expect theird own business to grow in the next12 “Small business owners are bullish on their own abilities but bearishn on the factors they can’t said Cameron Schmidt, director of marketing for . “Evem in the gloomiest economy, there are opportunitieds to seize.” A separate survey of small businesz owners by found that 57 percenf thought the economy was getting while 26 percent thought the economywas improving. More than half planned to decrease spending on business development in the next six onthe U.S.
Chamber of Commerce’s Web